Office of the Special Adviser on Africa - Climate change

One Year Later: The impact of the Russian conflict with Ukraine on Africa

Rado Ratovonarivo — Wed, 15 Feb 2023 18:04:00 +0000

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Secretary-General António Guterres watches grain being loaded on the Kubrosliy ship in Odesa, Ukraine.

�山��Photo/Mark Garten

Secretary-General António Guterres watches grain being loaded on the Kubrosliy ship in Odesa, Ukraine. © �山��Photo/Mark Garten

By Bitsat Yohannes-Kassahun

While much can be said about the political and policy intricacies surrounding the conflict, the real and palpable impact on the lives of many ordinary Africans is equally unsettling.

Against a backdrop of soaring food and energy prices and the shrinking basket of global economic cooperation financing, African countries are also contending with how to position themselves within the significant shifts in international energy policies, even as they are approached by various partners who are also grappling with the energy access implications for their own citizens.

The global energy crisis

The 2022 World Economic Outlook paints a stark picture of the state of global energy, stating that it is “delivering a shock of unprecedented breadth and complexity.”

This strain comes as African economies are still trying to emerge from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, for which they did not have enough resources to cushion themselves.

By mid- 2022, global energy prices soared to a three-decade high, and natural gas price costs edged over 300 Euros per megawatt-hour. These high costs for natural gas have come down significantly by February 2023, to less than $100 per megawatt-hour, owing to relatively warm winter temperatures in the northern hemisphere.

European governments largely shielded their citizens from these price shocks by spending over $640 billion on energy subsidies, regulating retail prices, and supporting businesses. African governments, on the other hand, did not have the fiscal space to protect consumers with such wide-scale, much-needed measures to counter rising energy prices.

In addition to pressures from fluctuations in exchange rates, and high commodities prices, inflation reached double digits in 40 per cent of African countries. Moreover, seven African countries are in debt distress as of January 2023, and 14 more are at high risk of debt distress, which makes them unable to implement meaningful countermeasures.

As a result, African households, who, according to the IMF, already spend over 50 per cent of their overall consumption on food and energy, felt the significant impact of the high conflict-induced global energy prices, along with their indirect effects on the cost of transportation and consumer goods.

The global energy crisis also created policy reversals, with many countries now pursuing natural gas and other fossil fuel projects to meet their energy needs.

Natural gas is also getting more traction as a “green investment”, a pivot from the pledges made at the COP26 global climate talks in Glasgow in November 2021 to curtail development financing for natural gas projects.

For African countries, this has meant a renewed interest in and fast-tracking of natural gas and liquified natural gas (LNG) projects, but mainly for export to Europe and others outside the continent.

While this may spell more investments in the energy sector on the continent, the benefit may not necessarily result in energy access for Africans themselves. Instead, this risks further perpetuating commodities-based economies, stunting the continent’s own industrialization ambitions.

Shocks to Africa’s food systems

While Africa has over 65 per cent of the world’s uncultivated land, it is a net food importer, and as such, has been severely impacted by the rise of global food prices, resulting in increased food insecurity.

According to the IMF, staple food prices in Africa “surged by an average 23.9 per cent in 2020-22—the most since the 2008 global financial crisis.”

This has devastating implications for many Africans, where food items occupy the largest share in many household consumption baskets. Food items take up about 42 per cent of African household consumption, reaching as high as 60 per cent in countries affected by conflict and insecurity. In France and the United States, food items represent 13 per cent and 6 per cent of household consumption, respectively, notes the United Nations.

According to the African Development Bank (AfDB), African countries spend over $75 billion to import over 100 million metric tons of cereals annually. In 2020, 15 African countries imported over 50 per cent of their wheat products from the Russian Federation or Ukraine. Six of these countries (Eritrea, Egypt, Benin, Sudan, Djibouti, and Tanzania) imported over 70 per cent of their wheat from the region.

The AfDB notes that the Russian invasion of Ukraine triggered a shortage of about 30 million tons of grains on the continent, along with a sharp increase in cost.

The UN's 2023 World Economic Situations and Prospects Report shows that Africa already had the highest prevalence of food insecurity globally in 2020 with 26 per cent facing severe food insecurity and 60 percent of the population affected by moderate or severe food insecurity according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

During the ‘Dakar 2 Summit on Feeding Africa: Food Sovereignty and Resilience’ held during 25-27 January 2023, the AfDB reported that this number rose sharply in 2022, with Africans now representing one-third (about 300 million people) of the global population that is currently facing hunger and food insecurity.

Fertilizer costs

Supply chain disruptions of primary farm inputs, including fertilizer imports from Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus, further threatened Africa's food security. The World Food Programme (WFP) reported that global fertilizer prices have risen by 199 per cent since May 2020, with prices for fertilizers more than doubling in Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania in 2022.

The WFP notes that "while this is partly a consequence of the war in Ukraine, prices of food, fuel, and fertilizers had already reached record highs by the end of 2021.” The “Black Sea Grain Initiative,” brokered by the United Nations and Türkiye and signed in July 2022, has eased some of the “fertilizer crunch” by allowing the movement of fertilizer exports from Ukraine to the rest of the world.

Looking ahead to the 2023-2024 growing season, the price and availability of fertilizers for farmers in Africa will determine how the continent will counter widespread food insecurity.

According to the World Bank, Africa's food production is already hampered due to low fertilizer usage, with "an average fertilizer application rate of 22 kilograms per hectare, compared to a world average that is seven times higher (146 kilograms per hectare)".

The Bank estimates that fertilizer exports from major African suppliers, namely Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus, which remain disrupted, will impact Africa’s food production and exacerbate food security throughout 2023.

Moreover, the World Bank notes that other fertilizer producers are banning exports of these critical inputs to protect their own farmers, leaving African farmers without many options.

Conclusion

As the world reflects on the various shocks created by the year-long conflict, Africans must grapple with the short-term inadvertent threats to their economies, food systems, and well-being. Indeed, �山��Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, speaking at the Global Food Security Call to Action in May 2022, warned, "If we do not feed people, we feed conflict.”

With some decisive leadership, there are some strategies that can ease the burden on struggling economies:

For example, re-allocating the $100 billion IMF Special Drawing Rights to support African countries and restructuring both private and public debt would give these countries the fiscal space to weather the crisis.
There is also a ray of hope in countering the long-term impacts of the conflict. The most strategic one is the political will of African governments to refocus on agriculture. At the Dakar 2 Summit, many African Heads of State and Government were keen to bolster public spending on agriculture to build a self-sufficient and resilient African food system. In his opening remarks at the summit, President Macky Sall of Senegal remarked, “From the farm to the plate, we need full food sovereignty, and we must increase land under cultivation and market access to enhance cross-border trade.”
Indeed, implementing the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which promises efficient cross-border trade, would allow the seamless movement of the approximately 30 million metric tonsof fertilizer that Africa produces each year. This production is twice the amount of fertilizer that the continent currently consumes.
Similarly, the AfDB plans to invest $ 10 billion "to make Africa the world's breadbasket." Such an investment can go a long way in replicating technological solutions, such as Ethiopia's use of heat-resistant crops to boost its wheat surpluses. The country plans to be a wheat exporter to other African countries in 2023.
On the energy side, accelerating sustainable, reliable, and affordable energy access, be it for industrial development, employment for the continent’s youth, or ensuring its food security, everything invariably lies in Africa having a balanced energy mix.

The series of interlocking challenges these past few years have made one issue very clear. Africans must have a unified stance to avoid yet another cycle of commodities-based exploitation of the continent’s energy resources, and work to ensure Africa's universal energy access.

The author is a programme management officer and cluster lead on energy and climate with the Office of the Special Adviser on Africa at the United Nations

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"Africa’s COP" should not neglect Africa’s concerns

Rado Ratovonarivo — Mon, 31 Oct 2022 21:05:00 +0000

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Solar Power Plant in Rwanda

Sameer Halai/SunFunder/Gigawatt Global

A commercial solar field in Rwanda. Photo: Sameer Halai/SunFunder/Gigawatt Global

By Cristina Duarte

Ms. Cristina Duarte is the Special Adviser of the United Nations Secretary-General on Africa, a position she holds at the rank of Under-Secretary-General.

It is once again the time of the year when world leaders, climate scientists, negotiators, activists, and other stakeholders gather to take stock of the planet’s future at the UNFCCC’s global climate talks. This November, Egypt will host the 27th Conference of Parties (COP 27) at Sharm El Sheik where participants will review the implementation of the many commitments made to mitigate the looming climate crisis and to add new ones.

The planet’s future remains at risk. Yet globally, many countries keep the status quo in terms of energy consumption. Instead of meaningful and deep cuts in emissions, the conversation revolves around alternative solutions for "carbon offsets", and carbon markets as well as providing hefty subsidies for the nominal integration of solar and wind power in their energy mixes.

Despite the many pledges, global CO2 emissions continued to rise in 2022 according to the UNFCCC, where preliminary data between January and May 2022 shows that they are “1.2% above the levels recorded during the same period in 2019” (UNFCCC, 2022. We are heading in the wrong direction). Moreover, as of 2019, all modern renewables combined (wind, solar, geothermal, and biofuels) accounted for 5% of primary global energy consumption, and hydropower and nuclear contributed 6% and 4%, respectively. The rest came from fossil fuels.

Many Africans are considering COP 27 as “Africa’s COP”, while also noting the incredible shifts in tone and narratives in the global energy landscape since COP 26 was held in Glasgow in November 2021. African countries have always been more than willing to embrace a green energy future, what is hanging in the balance is a clear path to such a future.

Africa’s voice and key messages, therefore, need to be pragmatic in Sharm El Sheik, recognizing that without technological breakthroughs to improve reliability, affordability, and ease of distribution, radical shifts to tilt the global energy balance in favour of green energy will take a lot longer than the projections of "net zero" by 2030 or even 2050.

First, the only viable energy future for Africa is a balanced energy mix

For African countries, energy access is no longer just an equity and economic development issue. It has real and severe implications for the continent’s peace and security, with a growing demand for food, and energy and a young population demanding better futures. Even though Africa is home to 17% of the world’s population, the continent represents only 3.3% of global primary energy consumption, 1.1% of electricity generation and 3% of global energy use in industry.

Moreover, each African country is at varying stages of its energy journey. Some countries have achieved a 100% electricity access rate, while others are well below 50%. Some countries already generate over 90% of their energy using green energy resources. There are also countries with large natural gas endowments and economies driven mainly by fossil fuel generation and export.

It is therefore unconscionable to arm-twist the entire continent into accepting an unrealistic "only renewables from now on" argument, knowing full well that renewables can only be a part of the equation in the path to a sustainable energy future. The continent’s future and its transformation instead lie in a balanced energy mix, if all are truly committed to the principle of “no one left behind.”

A windmill park near Nouakchott in Mauritania. Photo: UNDP Mauritania/Freya Morales.

Second, solar and wind renewable energy is not the "end all, be all" for Africa's energy access

The dominant assumption in the debate for Africa's renewable future is that Africa's vast untapped potential for solar and wind power can power all its energy needs. In technical terms, Africa's solar power generation potential is immense at 7900 gigawatts and 461 gigawatts for wind energy (assuming a 1% land utilization rate [1]). The possibility is exciting because this is enough to cover the entire world's energy needs, let alone Africa's. Plus, the assumption is that once constructed, the sun and wind are essentially cost-free energy fuels, allowing for capital cost recovery within a few years. However, the devil is in the engineering and technology details.

First, the continent's most significant potential for utility-scale solar and wind generation capacity lies in Northern Africa, within the Sahara Desert. The technical difficulty of developing this potential includes transmitting generated energy over long distances through vastly inaccessible landscapes, via investments in prohibitively expensive high-voltage transmission lines and transformers. Moreover, these power plants need energy/fuel to continuously run the plants' machinery, store, and transport excess power, and use a significant amount of pumped water to clean and cool solar panels.

As to cost recovery, many countries are hesitant to implement a substantial portion of their energy mix on solar and wind because these technologies provide intermittent power unless they feed a well-established grid. Moreover, the physical equipment (solar panels and wind turbines) has a lifespan of about 30 years under nearly perfect conditions.

Another assumption is that African countries can have a flourishing industry for manufacturing renewable energy components such as solar panels, lithium batteries, and wind turbines using the continent's natural resources for building green sectors. Indeed, Africa has a crucial advantage in this arena. The continent has "over 40% of global reserves of cobalt, manganese, and platinum – key minerals for batteries and hydrogen technologies." [2]

However, these industries for value addition and processing need constant, affordable, reliable energy to get off the ground. More critically, financing is more readily available for investments to export them away from the continent, not to add value to them on the continent.
To further complicate the issue, IRENA reports that "during 2018, three-quarters of patents related to the renewable energy sector were filed in just four countries (China, the United States, Japan, and Germany). To date, few African countries have managed to successfully integrate the high-value-added segments of renewable energy value chains and generate associated jobs." [3]

This is not to say that solar and wind energy do not have a place in Africa's energy mix and national energy plans. According to the World Economic Forum, Africa already generates 9% of its energy from renewable resources, with plans for more capacity underway. Decentralized off-grid renewable power systems provided 38 million people in East Africa alone between 2009-2019 with solar lighting and solar home systems. Indeed, supplying the 600 million Africans with electricity for their domestic needs will mostly come down to off-grid and mini-grid renewable energy systems.

However, to realize Africa's economic transformation and job creation potential, the focus needs to shift to what needs to be strengthened, harmonized, and built in the energy sector, all tailored to national priorities and realities. Some action items towards this end include:

investments in infrastructure such as national and regional grid networks.
increasing the efficiency of transmission and distribution networks.
research and development for energy storage technologies specific to African contexts.
harmonizing regulatory frameworks, and
strengthening power providers and utilities.

All these are reasons why a blanket ban on one or more energy sources or a 100% shift of investments toward renewables based on solar and wind alone is counterproductive.

Third, the misconception of the "stranded asset" argument

One of the arguments against African countries developing their natural gas resources [4] is the issue of "stranded assets." Proponents argue that as the world shifts away from fossil fuels, Africa's investment in natural gas will become a liability before the end of their useful lifespans.

But this lens is flawed for two reasons. First, African countries are portrayed solely as exporters of their resources, not consumers. This mentality is perpetuated in some circles because financing is mostly "readily" available to develop a resource/commodity to satisfy demand, usually outside the continent. However, with Africa's industrial, agricultural, and domestic demand for electricity and transportation projected to increase, long-term planning and investment should look at intra-continental consumption and markets in addition to using Africa's natural resources to generate revenue from outside the continent.

Second, tragically, the available data shows that fossil fuels represent 84% of global energy consumption [5]. Even if the world radically transitions to renewable energy, the demand for natural gas will most likely decrease gradually. Its use as a transition fuel and a cleaner backup fuel to counter the intermittency of solar and wind power will remain for the next 25-30 years, short of significant and cost-practical improvements.

These two considerations counter the "stranded assets" argument because the life span of natural gas pipelines is at most 50 years and that of gas turbines is about 30 years. As uncomfortable as this truth is, natural gas will most likely be a part of the global energy mix for the foreseeable future. In this scenario, the demand for Africa's gas resources can be turned inwards in the long term, proportionally to an eventual decrease in demand from abroad.

Planet Earth. View from outer space at night. Adobe Stock

Forth, Africans need a realistic picture of energy/climate financing

At the 2009 COP, rich countries promised to mobilize an additional $100 billion annually in climate finance for developing countries. Not only has this figure never been reached, but little of the billions also reported as climate funding is new, and Africa’s share has been less than a third of what has been made available. Indeed, expectations of massive flexible transfers from rich countries to enable developing countries to invest in their climate futures is at best, misleading.

In reality, the current investment and implementation rate for energy access is very slow. Africa currently accounts for just 4% of global power supply investment, and even this is concentrated in a handful of countries across the continent. Achieving reliable electricity supply for all would require an almost fourfold increase to around $120 billion annually through 2040.

If past performance is an indicator, this number will not magically increase. Moreover, financial markets and private sector actors will not suddenly change their business models to grant concessional financing and reduced profit targets for African energy projects, renewable or otherwise. These are some of the many reasons why domestic resource mobilization, curbing illicit financial flows, and long-term energy planning and investment are vital factors to Africa's energy access and growth.

As the momentum builds to Sharm El Sheik this month, "Africa's COP" should be a forum where the world genuinely hears Africans' concerns. Similarly, African countries should also take lessons from the "Just Energy Transition Partnership to support South Africa's decarbonization," one of the most prominent achievements of COP 26 in November 2021. The initiative promises to mobilize an initial commitment of $8.5 billion for the first phase of financing South Africa's transition. A year later, its practical implementation is still in the works due to the sheer complexity of the negotiations as to where the money is going to come from, how the country will spend it, and the conditionalities that need to be met before accessing the financing [6].

References and notes
[1] IRENA and AfDB (2022), Renewable Energy Market Analysis: Africa and Its Regions, International Renewable Energy Agency and African Development Bank, Abu Dhabi and Abidjan.
[2] IEA, Africa Energy Outlook 2022
[3] Ibid. IRENA, AFDB, 2022
[4] More than 5000 billion cubic meters (bcm) of reserves, i.e., over 13% of the world's natural gas reserves (IEA, Africa Energy Outlook 2022)
[5] The top countries importing natural gas from Algeria, Egypt and Nigeria are China, India, Italy, Japan, Jordan, Spain and Pakistan, in no particular order, which are nowhere near a complete transition to renewables.
[6] Bloomberg News, 2022. A Landmark $8.5 Billion Climate Finance Deal Hangs in the Balance.

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Africa’s Practical Realities for COP 27 and Beyond: The food, energy and climate nexus

Anonymous — Mon, 20 Jun 2022 19:52:00 +0000

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Africa’s Practical Realities for COP 27 and Beyond: The need for a nexus approach between Africa’s food systems, energy access and the continent’s fight against climate change

Agriculture is the backbone of Africa’s economy and holds tremendous potential as an engine for future growth and job creation in the continent.

The sector employs 65 to 70 per cent of Africa’s workforce and accounts for roughly a third of the continent’s gross domestic product (GDP). Women make up more than half of Africa’s farmers and produce about 90 per cent of the continent’s food.

Africa has the lowest productivity per capita in the world because farmers, for the most part, lack access to key agricultural inputs and rely on hand tools for land preparation and harvesting. Investing in key inputs for smallholder farms, including access to energy, has significant potential to transform the sector’s productivity. Promoting agricultural production is widely regarded as one of the most effective ways to drive inclusive growth and reduce poverty.

With each passing day, the impact of climate change shifts from predictions to reality.

In the coming years, Africa will experience severe adverse direct effects from climate change due to its high dependence on rainfed agriculture and its limited capacity to adapt. Projections under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 suggest that warming scenarios will have devastating effects on crop production and food security. Already the number of undernourished people in the drought-prone African countries has increased by 45.6 per cent since 2012, according to the FAO. In 2022, the �山��estimates that 120 million people across the continent face a food crisis.

Africa, therefore, needs a nexus approach to food systems, energy, and climate especially since increasingly, droughts, water scarcity, and extreme weather events are threatening the continent’s ability to feed itself. For example, Africa’s approach to improving efficiency in food systems and agricultural value chains can have double benefits in both climate adaptation and mitigation. In terms of mitigation, lack of energy for storage and postharvest processing infrastructure leads to high postharvest losses, estimated at 30 per cent for grains and 50 per cent for other more rapidly perishable products.

These post-harvest losses cost Africa US$4 billion per year.

In terms of greenhouse gas emissions, this wastage contributes to the global estimated 3.3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent of Green House Gases released into the atmosphere per year.

Additionally, inefficient agricultural value chains and increased populations can lead to the expansion of agriculture into forests and wetlands, destroying forest covers, soil degradation, and reducing Africa’s carbon sequestration capacity.

Moreover, forest destruction emits further carbon into the atmosphere. Energy plays a key part in increasing the efficiency of the continent’s food systems.

The COVID-19 pandemic already sent shockwaves to global supply chains, raising the prices of basic goods and shipping costs substantially. The crisis of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is further endangering food systems in several African countries, in the short term due to shortages in commodities imports and in the medium term, potential shortages in agricultural inputs such as fertilizers. These shocks highlight the critical issue of why Africa needs to accelerate industrial development to produce key agricultural inputs and boost intra-African trade.

As we approach COP 27, the Office of the Special Adviser on Africa (OSAA) is advocating for an integrated and wholistic nexus approach to Africa’s food systems, energy access and climate adaptation. Specifically, we reiterate the following policy recommendations:

First, an integrated approach to energy access and agriculture value chains

Increasing productivity and efficiency in agriculture value chains will contribute to minimizing agriculture-related deforestation. Energy is a key enabler for improving yields, water efficiency, and post-harvest storage, as well as for developing aggregated processing technologies and trade-related capacities that support agriculture value chains. However, Africa’s agriculture sector accounts for just 2 per cent of total electricity consumption. Energy demand in agriculture comprises both irrigation and agro-processing. Currently, only 5 per cent of Africa’s farmland is irrigated; irrigation can boost crop yields by up to four times. One way to do so is to use renewable energy on smallholder farms to tap into groundwater available in shallow aquifers.

African farmers also need improved access to local and regional markets to bring their products to markets with minimal losses. This requires innovation in cooling systems and energy-efficient transportation since Africa has low road density and nearly half of the rural population must travel five hours or more to reach the nearest market. The private sector alone cannot offer the solution to resolve these issues. There needs to be an at-scale investment in enabling infrastructures such as rural roads, markets, and incentives for investing in agriculture-related energy infrastructure.

One policy approach is to prioritize the targeted deployment of mini-grids and off-grid capabilities through structured farming cooperatives. Doing so can make these technologies affordable and leverage economies of scale, thus ensuring attractive profit margins for the private sector to invest in rural electrification and improving agricultural value chains.

Second, building climate adaptation through investments in agriculture-enabling infrastructure to minimize loss

Climate-related changes in weather patterns, unreliable rainfall and the effects of drought threaten Africa’s agriculture. Moreover, some of the major food crops in Africa are “vulnerable to temperature increase, rainfall changes, and carbon dioxide increase.” These factors alone make the agriculture sector highly vulnerable to climate-related shocks.

A policy recommendation is that adaptation measures need research and development components to identify resilient crops and staples for African agriculture. It also requires investment in energy needed for scaling up irrigation coupled with localized climate monitoring systems and data to ensure resilience and food security.

In the lead-up to COP 27, we are going to continue exploring the various facets of this nexus and we ask that you join us!

Send your thoughts and comments on what you think is important for Africa to voice in the negotiations.

Let’s build the Africa We Want, let’s build the Africa the world needs!

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Towards COP27: Views from Africa’s chief climate negotiator

Anonymous — Mon, 20 Jun 2022 18:13:00 +0000

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African Group of Negotiators

The 27th �山��Climate Change Conference of Parties (COP27) will be held in Egypt from 7 to 18 November 2022. Amid unmet climate commitments, lingering disruptions due to COVID-19, and the finance, energy and food challenges created by the war in Ukraine, the current Chair of the African Group of Negotiators (AGN) on climate change, Mr. Ephraim Mwepya Shitima of Zambia, talks about Africa’s priorities and what a successful COP27 would look like for the continent. These are excerpts:

What are Africa’s priorities in the lead-up to COP27 in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt?

For the African Group, COP27 should be about advancing the implementation of the National Determined Contributions (NDCs), including adaptation and mitigation efforts and delivery of finance to enhance implementation.
COP26 concluded the remaining guidance on implementing the Paris Agreement on climate change, therefore, we need to advance the implementation of our climate actions.

For instance, we would like to see the conference reach a concrete decision on the global goal for adaptation. The latest IPCC Working group report on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, highlighted the annual cost of adaptation in developing countries from $140 billion to $300 billion by 2030. We are calling for adaptation financing to match these figures.

Is Africa devising a new common position on key issues or you are sticking with the one used for COP26?

After every COP, we prepare and update the African Group Position following the decisions of committee of African Heads of State and Government on Climate Change (CAHOSCC). It should be noted that some agenda items we have worked on through the years may require reiterating of African views. For example, we will continue calling for global goal for adaptation to be operationalized and guide the adaptation efforts of countries. We will also reiterate the importance of delivering the $100 billion a year by 2020 goal that was not met by developed countries.

How does the crisis in Ukraine impact Africa’s priorities?

The concern is that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is directly contributing to the exacerbation of the food price crisis, bringing to the fore the need for food supply chains resilience. The soaring food prices combined with the impacts of climate induced droughts could create an even grimmer outlook for food security in coming years.

In addition to the food crisis, the scramble by many countries to find alternative sources to energy they used to get from Russia appears to be a setback for the climate agenda as new investments are being made in fossil fuels and new supply routes being created.

Diversion of attention from climate obligations in terms of climate finance, is another area of concern. But as we go back to the negotiations, our hope is that it shouldn't affect the outcome, as the multilateral process is guided by its rules and guidelines, irrespective of the geopolitical situation and should not make us lower our expectations.

Will it make negotiations easier or difficult this time round?

The current situation is difficult. However, the negotiations under the UNFCCC are guided by the Paris Agreement obligations, and we are committed to collectively enhancing and progressing our work under the UNFCCC. All the IPCC reports call for urgent climate action, and the Africa Group will continue to call for urgent climate action, accordingly.

What are the lessons, if any, that Africa learned from COP 26 in Glasgow that will be useful at COP27?

COPs are multilateral processes that are guided by the UNFCCC. Africa has and will continue to stress the importance of multilateral process, and COP27 will strengthen the multilateral efforts guided by the UNFCCC.

Many promises were made at COP26, including meeting the $100 billion financing gap by developed countries. How is that going?

Following the call by developing countries, the COP26 noted with regret that developed country parties have not met the $100 billion goal annually. The COP also agreed on a ‘Climate Finance Delivery Plan: Meeting the US$100 Billion Goal’ by 2025.

The African Group will continue calling on developed country parties to meet their obligation and work with other parties to ensure the swift implementation of the climate finance delivery plan.

One of the issues is that we need to agree that the $100 billion is climate finance. The danger is that our partners would want aid given to Africa and other developing countries to count as climate finance, even when it’s not related to climate.

So, we would like to drive a very clear distinction between Official Development Assistance (ODA) and climate finance.

Generally speaking, why should Africans care about climate change? How should we explain this to the ordinary person?

The reality of climate change has dawned on us for quite some years now. Particularly for our rural communities who depend on natural resources for their livelihoods.

Probably, someone in the urban centres such as Lagos, Johannesburg or Cairo may want to be academic about it because the only thing that they see is the erratic rain patterns, with no direct consequence on their daily lives, because after all, they get their water from the taps. But for rural communities across the continent who must get all their resources from mother nature, the reality is very stark.

For instance, streams or rivers which used to be their lifeline are drying up and can no longer sustain them. As a result, agricultural productivity is going down. These people can barely harvest enough crops to take them to the next season.

These are things that these people can see. The only thing that can be done is to explain to them that their traditional coping mechanisms may no longer be adequate and therefore, they need support with additional tools.

But even to those who want to be academic; the urban dwellers for example, and to those who may not pay a lot of attention to the weather patterns, you can demonstrate to them that in most of their countries, load shedding is frequently happening because not enough electricity is generated due to water levels going down. It doesn't matter where people are, climate change affects everyone.

So, we should all care because climate change is impacting Africa’s economy as well as the development trajectory, and its adverse impacts are costing lives. The recent flooding in South Africa and its impact on people’s lives and the economy is another example.

Climate campaigners have been stressing that Africa contributes just 4 per cent of global gas emissions, yet it is highly threatened by the climate crisis. Does this argument resonate with the developed world?

It still does and we will continue pushing it. The African Group supports the need to consider this negligible contribution, and the adverse impact the continent is facing. It is important that campaigners bring to light African interests and support our agenda of sustainable development.

However, what is also true is that Africa cannot continue along the same traditional path which will simply be untenable and costly. For example, in the energy sector, we can no longer continue with the fossil fuels in the long term when the entire world is changing. We must adapt and change. In terms of our development trajectory, it must be low carbon development and one that will be sustainable.

How did the COVID-19 pandemic affect efforts to address the climate crisis in Africa?

The pandemic has had a severe impact on the health and the economy of Africa by contracting the GDP of the continent by up to 3.4%, with an estimated loss of between $173.1 billion and $236.7 billion for the years 2020–2021.

This has exacerbated the adverse impacts of climate change and reduced the capacity of African countries to adapt to climate change.

On the other hand, because of disruptions and the inability to meet in person, most countries were not able to update their NDCs on time.

In the larger scheme of things, however, COVID-19 has taught us the virtue of countries working together in tackling challenges. If we can apply the same model of cooperation to ensure that response to climate change is at that scale and resources quickly mobilized and made available to countries, that would be probably one of the lasting legacies from COVID-19.

What would be your idea of success for Africa at COP27?

We have a few expectations for COP27, but clear decisions on implementation of climate action will constitute success at COP27. We must have a lot of tangible, implementable outcomes. We must have decisions that people can point to and say: this is being implemented.

* This article was first published in Africa Renewal

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