Office of the Special Adviser on Africa - COP27

"Africa’s COP" should not neglect Africa’s concerns

Rado Ratovonarivo — Mon, 31 Oct 2022 21:05:00 +0000

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Solar Power Plant in Rwanda

Sameer Halai/SunFunder/Gigawatt Global

A commercial solar field in Rwanda. Photo: Sameer Halai/SunFunder/Gigawatt Global

By Cristina Duarte

Ms. Cristina Duarte is the Special Adviser of the United Nations Secretary-General on Africa, a position she holds at the rank of Under-Secretary-General.

It is once again the time of the year when world leaders, climate scientists, negotiators, activists, and other stakeholders gather to take stock of the planet’s future at the UNFCCC’s global climate talks. This November, Egypt will host the 27th Conference of Parties (COP 27) at Sharm El Sheik where participants will review the implementation of the many commitments made to mitigate the looming climate crisis and to add new ones.

The planet’s future remains at risk. Yet globally, many countries keep the status quo in terms of energy consumption. Instead of meaningful and deep cuts in emissions, the conversation revolves around alternative solutions for "carbon offsets", and carbon markets as well as providing hefty subsidies for the nominal integration of solar and wind power in their energy mixes.

Despite the many pledges, global CO2 emissions continued to rise in 2022 according to the UNFCCC, where preliminary data between January and May 2022 shows that they are “1.2% above the levels recorded during the same period in 2019” (UNFCCC, 2022. We are heading in the wrong direction). Moreover, as of 2019, all modern renewables combined (wind, solar, geothermal, and biofuels) accounted for 5% of primary global energy consumption, and hydropower and nuclear contributed 6% and 4%, respectively. The rest came from fossil fuels.

Many Africans are considering COP 27 as “Africa’s COP”, while also noting the incredible shifts in tone and narratives in the global energy landscape since COP 26 was held in Glasgow in November 2021. African countries have always been more than willing to embrace a green energy future, what is hanging in the balance is a clear path to such a future.

Africa’s voice and key messages, therefore, need to be pragmatic in Sharm El Sheik, recognizing that without technological breakthroughs to improve reliability, affordability, and ease of distribution, radical shifts to tilt the global energy balance in favour of green energy will take a lot longer than the projections of "net zero" by 2030 or even 2050.

First, the only viable energy future for Africa is a balanced energy mix

For African countries, energy access is no longer just an equity and economic development issue. It has real and severe implications for the continent’s peace and security, with a growing demand for food, and energy and a young population demanding better futures. Even though Africa is home to 17% of the world’s population, the continent represents only 3.3% of global primary energy consumption, 1.1% of electricity generation and 3% of global energy use in industry.

Moreover, each African country is at varying stages of its energy journey. Some countries have achieved a 100% electricity access rate, while others are well below 50%. Some countries already generate over 90% of their energy using green energy resources. There are also countries with large natural gas endowments and economies driven mainly by fossil fuel generation and export.

It is therefore unconscionable to arm-twist the entire continent into accepting an unrealistic "only renewables from now on" argument, knowing full well that renewables can only be a part of the equation in the path to a sustainable energy future. The continent’s future and its transformation instead lie in a balanced energy mix, if all are truly committed to the principle of “no one left behind.”

A windmill park near Nouakchott in Mauritania. Photo: UNDP Mauritania/Freya Morales.

Second, solar and wind renewable energy is not the "end all, be all" for Africa's energy access

The dominant assumption in the debate for Africa's renewable future is that Africa's vast untapped potential for solar and wind power can power all its energy needs. In technical terms, Africa's solar power generation potential is immense at 7900 gigawatts and 461 gigawatts for wind energy (assuming a 1% land utilization rate [1]). The possibility is exciting because this is enough to cover the entire world's energy needs, let alone Africa's. Plus, the assumption is that once constructed, the sun and wind are essentially cost-free energy fuels, allowing for capital cost recovery within a few years. However, the devil is in the engineering and technology details.

First, the continent's most significant potential for utility-scale solar and wind generation capacity lies in Northern Africa, within the Sahara Desert. The technical difficulty of developing this potential includes transmitting generated energy over long distances through vastly inaccessible landscapes, via investments in prohibitively expensive high-voltage transmission lines and transformers. Moreover, these power plants need energy/fuel to continuously run the plants' machinery, store, and transport excess power, and use a significant amount of pumped water to clean and cool solar panels.

As to cost recovery, many countries are hesitant to implement a substantial portion of their energy mix on solar and wind because these technologies provide intermittent power unless they feed a well-established grid. Moreover, the physical equipment (solar panels and wind turbines) has a lifespan of about 30 years under nearly perfect conditions.

Another assumption is that African countries can have a flourishing industry for manufacturing renewable energy components such as solar panels, lithium batteries, and wind turbines using the continent's natural resources for building green sectors. Indeed, Africa has a crucial advantage in this arena. The continent has "over 40% of global reserves of cobalt, manganese, and platinum – key minerals for batteries and hydrogen technologies." [2]

However, these industries for value addition and processing need constant, affordable, reliable energy to get off the ground. More critically, financing is more readily available for investments to export them away from the continent, not to add value to them on the continent.
To further complicate the issue, IRENA reports that "during 2018, three-quarters of patents related to the renewable energy sector were filed in just four countries (China, the United States, Japan, and Germany). To date, few African countries have managed to successfully integrate the high-value-added segments of renewable energy value chains and generate associated jobs." [3]

This is not to say that solar and wind energy do not have a place in Africa's energy mix and national energy plans. According to the World Economic Forum, Africa already generates 9% of its energy from renewable resources, with plans for more capacity underway. Decentralized off-grid renewable power systems provided 38 million people in East Africa alone between 2009-2019 with solar lighting and solar home systems. Indeed, supplying the 600 million Africans with electricity for their domestic needs will mostly come down to off-grid and mini-grid renewable energy systems.

However, to realize Africa's economic transformation and job creation potential, the focus needs to shift to what needs to be strengthened, harmonized, and built in the energy sector, all tailored to national priorities and realities. Some action items towards this end include:

investments in infrastructure such as national and regional grid networks.
increasing the efficiency of transmission and distribution networks.
research and development for energy storage technologies specific to African contexts.
harmonizing regulatory frameworks, and
strengthening power providers and utilities.

All these are reasons why a blanket ban on one or more energy sources or a 100% shift of investments toward renewables based on solar and wind alone is counterproductive.

Third, the misconception of the "stranded asset" argument

One of the arguments against African countries developing their natural gas resources [4] is the issue of "stranded assets." Proponents argue that as the world shifts away from fossil fuels, Africa's investment in natural gas will become a liability before the end of their useful lifespans.

But this lens is flawed for two reasons. First, African countries are portrayed solely as exporters of their resources, not consumers. This mentality is perpetuated in some circles because financing is mostly "readily" available to develop a resource/commodity to satisfy demand, usually outside the continent. However, with Africa's industrial, agricultural, and domestic demand for electricity and transportation projected to increase, long-term planning and investment should look at intra-continental consumption and markets in addition to using Africa's natural resources to generate revenue from outside the continent.

Second, tragically, the available data shows that fossil fuels represent 84% of global energy consumption [5]. Even if the world radically transitions to renewable energy, the demand for natural gas will most likely decrease gradually. Its use as a transition fuel and a cleaner backup fuel to counter the intermittency of solar and wind power will remain for the next 25-30 years, short of significant and cost-practical improvements.

These two considerations counter the "stranded assets" argument because the life span of natural gas pipelines is at most 50 years and that of gas turbines is about 30 years. As uncomfortable as this truth is, natural gas will most likely be a part of the global energy mix for the foreseeable future. In this scenario, the demand for Africa's gas resources can be turned inwards in the long term, proportionally to an eventual decrease in demand from abroad.

Planet Earth. View from outer space at night. Adobe Stock

Forth, Africans need a realistic picture of energy/climate financing

At the 2009 COP, rich countries promised to mobilize an additional $100 billion annually in climate finance for developing countries. Not only has this figure never been reached, but little of the billions also reported as climate funding is new, and Africa’s share has been less than a third of what has been made available. Indeed, expectations of massive flexible transfers from rich countries to enable developing countries to invest in their climate futures is at best, misleading.

In reality, the current investment and implementation rate for energy access is very slow. Africa currently accounts for just 4% of global power supply investment, and even this is concentrated in a handful of countries across the continent. Achieving reliable electricity supply for all would require an almost fourfold increase to around $120 billion annually through 2040.

If past performance is an indicator, this number will not magically increase. Moreover, financial markets and private sector actors will not suddenly change their business models to grant concessional financing and reduced profit targets for African energy projects, renewable or otherwise. These are some of the many reasons why domestic resource mobilization, curbing illicit financial flows, and long-term energy planning and investment are vital factors to Africa's energy access and growth.

As the momentum builds to Sharm El Sheik this month, "Africa's COP" should be a forum where the world genuinely hears Africans' concerns. Similarly, African countries should also take lessons from the "Just Energy Transition Partnership to support South Africa's decarbonization," one of the most prominent achievements of COP 26 in November 2021. The initiative promises to mobilize an initial commitment of $8.5 billion for the first phase of financing South Africa's transition. A year later, its practical implementation is still in the works due to the sheer complexity of the negotiations as to where the money is going to come from, how the country will spend it, and the conditionalities that need to be met before accessing the financing [6].

References and notes
[1] IRENA and AfDB (2022), Renewable Energy Market Analysis: Africa and Its Regions, International Renewable Energy Agency and African Development Bank, Abu Dhabi and Abidjan.
[2] IEA, Africa Energy Outlook 2022
[3] Ibid. IRENA, AFDB, 2022
[4] More than 5000 billion cubic meters (bcm) of reserves, i.e., over 13% of the world's natural gas reserves (IEA, Africa Energy Outlook 2022)
[5] The top countries importing natural gas from Algeria, Egypt and Nigeria are China, India, Italy, Japan, Jordan, Spain and Pakistan, in no particular order, which are nowhere near a complete transition to renewables.
[6] Bloomberg News, 2022. A Landmark $8.5 Billion Climate Finance Deal Hangs in the Balance.

Front Page Article:

Africa’s Practical Realities for COP 27 and Beyond: The food, energy and climate nexus

Anonymous — Mon, 20 Jun 2022 19:52:00 +0000

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Africa’s Practical Realities for COP 27 and Beyond: The need for a nexus approach between Africa’s food systems, energy access and the continent’s fight against climate change

Agriculture is the backbone of Africa’s economy and holds tremendous potential as an engine for future growth and job creation in the continent.

The sector employs 65 to 70 per cent of Africa’s workforce and accounts for roughly a third of the continent’s gross domestic product (GDP). Women make up more than half of Africa’s farmers and produce about 90 per cent of the continent’s food.

Africa has the lowest productivity per capita in the world because farmers, for the most part, lack access to key agricultural inputs and rely on hand tools for land preparation and harvesting. Investing in key inputs for smallholder farms, including access to energy, has significant potential to transform the sector’s productivity. Promoting agricultural production is widely regarded as one of the most effective ways to drive inclusive growth and reduce poverty.

With each passing day, the impact of climate change shifts from predictions to reality.

In the coming years, Africa will experience severe adverse direct effects from climate change due to its high dependence on rainfed agriculture and its limited capacity to adapt. Projections under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 suggest that warming scenarios will have devastating effects on crop production and food security. Already the number of undernourished people in the drought-prone African countries has increased by 45.6 per cent since 2012, according to the FAO. In 2022, the �山��estimates that 120 million people across the continent face a food crisis.

Africa, therefore, needs a nexus approach to food systems, energy, and climate especially since increasingly, droughts, water scarcity, and extreme weather events are threatening the continent’s ability to feed itself. For example, Africa’s approach to improving efficiency in food systems and agricultural value chains can have double benefits in both climate adaptation and mitigation. In terms of mitigation, lack of energy for storage and postharvest processing infrastructure leads to high postharvest losses, estimated at 30 per cent for grains and 50 per cent for other more rapidly perishable products.

These post-harvest losses cost Africa US$4 billion per year.

In terms of greenhouse gas emissions, this wastage contributes to the global estimated 3.3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent of Green House Gases released into the atmosphere per year.

Additionally, inefficient agricultural value chains and increased populations can lead to the expansion of agriculture into forests and wetlands, destroying forest covers, soil degradation, and reducing Africa’s carbon sequestration capacity.

Moreover, forest destruction emits further carbon into the atmosphere. Energy plays a key part in increasing the efficiency of the continent’s food systems.

The COVID-19 pandemic already sent shockwaves to global supply chains, raising the prices of basic goods and shipping costs substantially. The crisis of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is further endangering food systems in several African countries, in the short term due to shortages in commodities imports and in the medium term, potential shortages in agricultural inputs such as fertilizers. These shocks highlight the critical issue of why Africa needs to accelerate industrial development to produce key agricultural inputs and boost intra-African trade.

As we approach COP 27, the Office of the Special Adviser on Africa (OSAA) is advocating for an integrated and wholistic nexus approach to Africa’s food systems, energy access and climate adaptation. Specifically, we reiterate the following policy recommendations:

First, an integrated approach to energy access and agriculture value chains

Increasing productivity and efficiency in agriculture value chains will contribute to minimizing agriculture-related deforestation. Energy is a key enabler for improving yields, water efficiency, and post-harvest storage, as well as for developing aggregated processing technologies and trade-related capacities that support agriculture value chains. However, Africa’s agriculture sector accounts for just 2 per cent of total electricity consumption. Energy demand in agriculture comprises both irrigation and agro-processing. Currently, only 5 per cent of Africa’s farmland is irrigated; irrigation can boost crop yields by up to four times. One way to do so is to use renewable energy on smallholder farms to tap into groundwater available in shallow aquifers.

African farmers also need improved access to local and regional markets to bring their products to markets with minimal losses. This requires innovation in cooling systems and energy-efficient transportation since Africa has low road density and nearly half of the rural population must travel five hours or more to reach the nearest market. The private sector alone cannot offer the solution to resolve these issues. There needs to be an at-scale investment in enabling infrastructures such as rural roads, markets, and incentives for investing in agriculture-related energy infrastructure.

One policy approach is to prioritize the targeted deployment of mini-grids and off-grid capabilities through structured farming cooperatives. Doing so can make these technologies affordable and leverage economies of scale, thus ensuring attractive profit margins for the private sector to invest in rural electrification and improving agricultural value chains.

Second, building climate adaptation through investments in agriculture-enabling infrastructure to minimize loss

Climate-related changes in weather patterns, unreliable rainfall and the effects of drought threaten Africa’s agriculture. Moreover, some of the major food crops in Africa are “vulnerable to temperature increase, rainfall changes, and carbon dioxide increase.” These factors alone make the agriculture sector highly vulnerable to climate-related shocks.

A policy recommendation is that adaptation measures need research and development components to identify resilient crops and staples for African agriculture. It also requires investment in energy needed for scaling up irrigation coupled with localized climate monitoring systems and data to ensure resilience and food security.

In the lead-up to COP 27, we are going to continue exploring the various facets of this nexus and we ask that you join us!

Send your thoughts and comments on what you think is important for Africa to voice in the negotiations.

Let’s build the Africa We Want, let’s build the Africa the world needs!

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