缅北禁地

On Saturday, a听new ceasefire听came into effect in South Sudan. But within hours it had听been violated听鈥� terrible news for millions of South Sudanese in the midst of their 鈥渓ean season鈥�, when food stocks are low and heavy rains can arrive suddenly, washing out roads and links to lifesaving assistance.

July marks the peak of the hunger gap when harvests are depleted just as new crops are planted. Without food distributed by aid groups, an estimated 7.1 million people 鈥� more than half the population 鈥� would go hungry. Continued conflict makes humanitarian access to many areas extremely difficult, as well as being deadly and disruptive for civilians.

鈥淭he conflict must end,鈥� World Food Programme Country Representative Adnan Khan told IRIN. 鈥淚t鈥檚 one of the main causes of hunger in South Sudan today, forcing millions of people to abandon their land, homes, and jobs, putting them at risk of hunger. We need both peace and sustained [humanitarian] access to succeed.鈥�

The civil war, now in its fifth year, has claimed tens of thousands of lives, displaced more than four million people 鈥� either to other parts of South Sudan or to neighbouring countries 鈥� and, along with poor governance, done untold damage to the oil-rich country鈥檚 economy.

On 27 June, President Salva Kiir and his rival Riek Machar agreed that a "permanent" ceasefire would come into effect within 72 hours, and that humanitarian corridors would be opened up.

But, like numerous previous ceasefires, it was violated almost before the ink dried. The latest agreement builds on a flawed 2015 peace accord that has done nothing to end the conflict, and many analysts听believe it is also destined to fail.

Without lasting peace, international aid organisations fear little progress can be made to help stem hunger in the world鈥檚 newest country, which has one of the world鈥檚 worst levels of food security (access to enough nutritious food for a healthy life).

鈥淔ood security goes beyond seasonality,鈥� explains Alemu Manni, a project manager with the UN鈥檚 Food and Agriculture Organization. During conflict, 鈥減eople are not able to cultivate their land and are forced to flee the country, disrupting their livelihoods.鈥�

During last year鈥檚 lean season, an estimated six million South Sudanese experienced severe food insecurity. According to the FAO, this number dropped to 4.8 million after crops were harvested, and the number of people living in conditions of famine fell from 40,000 to 25,000.

When the rains come

鈥淎ll of our activities and lives revolve around food. It鈥檚 an all-consuming thought,鈥� says Mary Amaik, a mother of six who has lived in Pibor for the past two years.

Pibor, a small town close to the Ethiopian border in eastern Boma State, lies on plains at the source of the Pibor River. It has a small market and an unpaved airstrip that fixed-wing aircraft can鈥檛 use during the rains because of the mud. So most aid is now flown in by helicopter, which is much more expensive.

South Sudan鈥檚 rains are dramatic. In just a few minutes, roads turn into streams thick with sticky mud, making it almost impossible for cars or trucks to pass. The rainy season runs roughly from May until October 鈥撎齤ust the time when people are hungriest.

Heavy raindrops hit the corrugated roof of Amaik鈥檚 home like a drum roll, the water washing off the dust and gushing into the thick, earthy soil.

鈥淒uring the rainy season, my garden floods and the majority of my crops are destroyed,鈥� Amaik says. 鈥淩ight now, it鈥檚 a challenge to get food.鈥� During the wetter months, she explains, it鈥檚 impossible for traders to reach her town by road.

鈥淓ven if we have money, there is no food in the market,鈥� she says.

Agricultural yields have declined since the civil war broke out in December 2013. South Sudan is expected to produce a half a million fewer tonnes of cereal this year than its population requires, a shortfall similar to 2017.

Much of South Sudan鈥檚 food is now imported from Uganda, brought in along roads where armed attacks and looting are common. Yet even when supplies arrive, the prices keep them 听beyond the reach of many.

The bags of sorghum in Amaik鈥檚 house were distributed by aid agencies. Sorghum, the main crop eaten in South Sudan, has risen in price almost fourfold since 2016. During the height of the last lean season, the price peaked at 560 percent above the previous year.

How bad is it?

Food insecurity is categorised into five 鈥減hases鈥� of severity. The most extreme phase, 鈥渃atastrophe/famine鈥� was declared in the towns of Leer and Mayendit in northern Unity State in February 2017.

This year, limited access has made it impossible to gather the data needed to accurately assess the situation in some parts of southern Unity State. Recent fighting forced aid agencies to postpone deliveries of emergency food supplies to Unity.

鈥淚t was the hardest area to collect information from, but we know it鈥檚 an area of high concern,鈥� says Philip Dau, director of monitoring and evaluation at the National Bureau of Statistics for South Sudan.

鈥淲e also saw indicators for food insecurity in Pibor, although these are not pointing to 鈥榗atastrophe鈥�. Sometimes, there are indicators 鈥� such as lack of food 鈥� but we find no evidence of crisis,鈥� Dau explains.

Lack of access is a constant issue听as the conflict fragments听among more armed groups, according to Obia Achieng, chief of field operations for UNICEF in South Sudan.

鈥淣ationally, we have conflict between the main parties,鈥� Achieng explains. 鈥淟ocally, there are dynamics between leaders, smaller conflicts linked to cattle raids, and communal conflicts which limit our access,鈥� he says, adding that it鈥檚 difficult to deliver long-term assistance to children and women in south Unity. 鈥淏ut we are trying,鈥� he adds.

Depending on forests, and militias

For some South Sudanese, joining the conflict seems to be their only chance not to go hungry.

Martha, 15, is from Likuangole, a town near Pibor that is impossible to reach by road during the rainy season. She and her mother joined a local anti-government militia called the Cobra, hoping for better security and access to food.

鈥淟ikuangole is full of hunger. It was too difficult and that鈥檚 why we left,鈥� Martha explains. 鈥淢any people from my town went to the bush. I carried luggage and food for the soldiers and they raided villages and cattle so we could have food,鈥� Martha recalls. 鈥淲e did it for the food.鈥�

They recently left the ranks of the militia and returned home to Pibor. Martha attends school but says she鈥檚 struggling during this rainy season because of the lack of sorghum and vegetables.

In Pibor, as throughout South Sudan, women are largely responsible for planting and harvesting.

鈥淢en 鈥� even my husband 鈥� tell me that I am 鈥榡ust鈥� a woman and that I don鈥檛 have rights. We do all of the field work and the planting,鈥� says Amaik. 鈥淚 think that men are part of the problem when it comes to hunger. The situation is worse, because they don鈥檛 work much.鈥�

Stefano Temporin, who heads the South Sudan office of German NGO Welthungerhilfe, says many young men are often away from their homes at cattle camps. They 鈥渙nly return to their families with the start of the rainy season. Others may have been drafted by the various armed groups,鈥� he says.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 know how they survive鈥�

Although aid agencies provide food, seeds, and farming tools, people here frequently eat only one meal a day, gathering fruit from the forest. Sometimes, they are forced to kill their scrawny cows 鈥� often a family鈥檚 only asset and also widely used as dowry payments 鈥� for what little meat they provide.

鈥淧eople in some areas are employing harmful survival tactics to try to tide them through tough times, including eating less, rationing, and [reducing] the diversity of food,鈥� says WFP鈥檚 Khan.

For Amaik and her family, sorghum and wild fruits are their mainstays.

鈥淒uring the rainy season, people migrate to Pibor from the villages, so they are not cut off from the market,鈥� she says. 鈥淚t鈥檚 better in Pibor.鈥�

As for the people living in rural, secluded areas with little access to food, she notes: 鈥淚 don鈥檛 know how they survive.鈥�