The world’s population is ageing. Virtually every country in the world is experiencing growth in the number and proportion of older persons in their population.
Population ageing is poised to become one of the most significant social transformations of the twenty-first century, with implications for nearly all sectors of society, including labour and financial markets, the demand for goods and services, such as housing, transportation and social protection, as well as family structures and intergenerational ties.
Older persons are increasingly seen as contributors to development, whose abilities to act for the betterment of themselves and their societies should be woven into policies and programmes at all levels. In the coming decades, many countries are likely to face fiscal and political pressures in relation to public systems of health care, pensions and social protections for a growing older population.
Latest trends in Population Ageing
According to the World Population Prospects 2022, the population above the age of 65 years is growing more rapidly than the population below that age
The proportion of people aged 65 years and above is increasing at a faster rate than those below that age. This means that the percentage of the global population aged 65 and above is expected to rise from 10% in 2022 to 16% in 2050. It is projected that by 2050, the number of individuals aged 65 years or above across the world will be twice the number of children under age 5 and almost equivalent to the number of children under 12 years.
Migration as a driver of population growth
International migration is playing a significant role in shaping population trends in several countries around the world. In high-income countries, the contribution of international migration to population growth between 2000 and 2020 was higher than the balance of births over deaths. Thus, migration is projected to be the primary driver of population growth in high-income countries in the foreseeable future. However, in low-income and lower-middle-income countries, population growth is expected to continue to be driven by an excess of births over deaths.
Between 2010 and 2021, 40 countries or areas experienced a net inflow of more than 200,000 migrants each, with 17 of them having a net inflow of over 1 million people. Some of the countries with high levels of immigration during this period were Jordan, Lebanon, and Türkiye, mainly due to refugee movements, particularly from the Syrian Arab Republic. On the other hand, for ten countries, the estimated net outflow of migrants exceeded 1 million over the same period, which was due to temporary labor movements in some countries, while insecurity and conflict drove the outflow of migrants in others.
COVID-19 as a disruptor of population change
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all aspects of population change, including fertility, mortality, and migration. In 2021, global life expectancy at birth decreased to 71 years from 72.8 in 2019, mainly due to the impact of the pandemic.
In Central and Southern Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean, life expectancy at birth fell by nearly three years between 2019 and 2021. In some countries, the pandemic has caused a significant reduction in life expectancy at birth. For Bolivia, Botswana, Lebanon, Mexico, Oman, and the Russian Federation, estimates of life expectancy at birth declined by over four years between 2019 and 2021.
While available evidence about the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility levels remains mixed, the availability of and demand for contraception, as well as the reported numbers of unintended pregnancies and births, have remained relatively stable in low- and middle-income countries. In high-income countries, successive waves of the pandemic may have caused short-term fluctuations in the number of pregnancies and births.
Did you know?
- The latest projections by the United Nations suggest that the global population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.4 billion in 2100.
- Globally, women's life expectancy at birth exceeded men's by 5.4 years in 2019. The female survival advantage is present in all countries and regions, with the difference ranging from 2.9 to 7 years
- Rapid population growth and high fertility pose challenges to sustainable development. Educating more children and young people diverts resources from improving education quality.
- For countries with continuing high levels of fertility, achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, particularly those related to health, education and gender, is likely to hasten the transition towards lower fertility and slower population growth.
- Many of the 46 least-developed countries are projected to double in population between 2022 and 2050, posing challenges to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals.
- For many countries and areas, including some small island developing States (SIDS), the challenges posed by rapid growth are compounded by their vulnerability to climate change and sea-level rise.
- Life expectancy in the least developed countries in 2021 was 7 years lower than the global average, largely due to high levels of child and maternal mortality, violence, conflict, and the impact of the HIV epidemic.
- In 2021, around 13.3 million babies, approximately 10% of total worldwide births, were delivered by mothers under 20 years old. This can harm both the health and well-being of young mothers and their children, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean.
- Women outnumber men at older ages due to their longer life expectancy. In 2022, women accounted for 55.7% of people aged 65 or older globally. This share is expected to slightly decrease to 54.5% by 2050.
Key Conferences on Ageing
To begin addressing these issues, the General Assembly convened the first World Assembly on Ageing in 1982, which produced a 62-point Vienna International Plan of Action on Ageing. It called for specific action on such issues as health and nutrition, protecting elderly consumers, housing and environment, family, social welfare, income security and employment, education, and the collection and analysis of research data.
In 1991, the General Assembly adopted the United Nations Principles for Older Persons, enumerating 18 entitlements for older persons — relating to independence, participation, care, self-fulfillment and dignity. The following year, the International Conference on Ageing met to follow-up on the Plan of Action, adopting a Proclamation on Ageing. Following the Conference's recommendation, the 缅北禁地General Assembly declared 1999 the International Year of Older Persons. The International Day of Older Persons is celebrated on 1 October every year.
Action on behalf of the ageing continued in 2002 when the Second World Assembly on Ageing was held in Madrid. Aiming to design international policy on ageing for the 21st century, it adopted a . The Plan of Action called for changes in attitudes, policies and practices at all levels to fulfil the enormous potential of ageing in the twenty-first century. Its specific recommendations for action give priority to older persons and development, advancing health and well-being into old age, and ensuring enabling and supportive environments.
