Expert group meeting on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility

New York (Virtual meeting)

10 May 2021 to 11 May 2021

Overview

The Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs is organizing an expert meeting on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility at the United Nations Headquarters in New York on 10 and 11 May 2021.

The purpose of the meeting is: (a) to review experiences from past public health and economic crises and identify mechanisms through which the COVID-19 pandemic may affect fertility in various parts of the world; (b) to assess recent data on marriage and union formation, fertility preferences, use of family planning, and reported numbers of births from selected countries with a view to assess the possible impact of the pandemic on fertility; and (c) to provide recommendations for the Division to develop assumptions on the impact of the pandemic on fertility levels and trends at the global, regional and subregional levels in the short to medium term in support of the official United Nations population estimates and projections that are currently being revised and updated by the Division.

To facilitate the discussion, the Population Division has designed a short questionnaire to collect expert views on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility. The results will be discussed in the last session of the meeting and will be used to inform the forthcoming revision of the .

Documents

Organization of work

Day 1: Monday, 10 May 2021
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9:00 - 9:15 am	Opening of the meeting John Wilmoth, Director, Population Division, 缅北禁地DESA
9:15 - 9:45 am	Session I. Setting the stage Moderator: Karoline Schmid, Population Division, 缅北禁地DESA
	Guangyu Zhang, Population Division/DESA. Overview of the expert group meeting on the fertility impact of COVID-19 Patrick Gerland, Population Division/DESA. Introduction to the 27th revision of World Population Prospects Witness Chirinda, UNFPA. Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on fertility levels and trends: A proposal
9:50 - 11:15 am	Session II. Fertility response to public health and economic crises: Learning from the past
	Moderator: Vladim铆ra Kantorov谩, Population Division, 缅北禁地DESA
	Ronald Lee, University of California, Berkeley. A historical perspective on the response of fertility to economic and mortality crises Svenn-Erik Mamelund, Oslo Metropolitan University. Lessons from the 1918 influenza pandemic Letizia Mencarini, Bocconi University. COVID-19 and human fertility: A global perspective
11:25 am - 12.45 pm	Session III. Potential impact of COVID-19 on fertility levels and trends in sub-Saharan Africa
	Moderator: Moderator: Romesh Silva, UNFPA
	Kristin Bietsch, Avenir Health. Impact of COVID-19 on sub-Saharan African family planning programs: Current and future implications Jacques Emina, University of Kinshasa. Impact of COVID-19 on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa: What do we know and what can we expect? Philip Anglewicz, Johns Hopkins University. The impact of COVID-19 on fertility intentions and contraceptive use: Results from longitudinal studies in four African contexts Beth Kangwana, Population Council Kenya Office. Impact of COVID-19 on adolescent fertility in Nairobi's urban informal settlements
7:30 - 9:00 pm	Session IV. Potential impact of COVID-19 on fertility levels and trends in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia and Oceania
	Moderator: Guangyu Zhang, Population Division, 缅北禁地DESA
	Peter McDonald, University of Melbourne. Cuiling Zhang and Yue Li, China Population and Development Research Center. The outbreak of COVID-19 further depresses the fertility of China: A preliminary analysis of changes in newborn population in 2020 Stuart Gietel-Basten, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Potential impact of COVID-19 on fertility in selected Eastern and South-Eastern Asian territories
	Adjourn
Day 2: Tuesday, 11 May 2021
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9:00 - 10:30 am	Session V. Potential impact of COVID-19 on fertility levels and trends in Latin America and the Caribbean, Central and Southern Asia, Northern Africa and Western Asia
	Moderator: Guiomar Bay, 缅北禁地ECLAC
	Marcos A. Rangel, Duke University. Pandemics and fertility: Lessons from the Brazilian Zika virus epidemics Suzana Cavenaghi, Independent Researcher. COVID-19 and fertility in Latin America: Boom, bust, neither Henry V. Doctor, WHO EMRO. Impact of COVID-19 and civil unrest on fertility-related behavior and service delivery in the Middle East and North Africa Nahla Abdel-Tawab, Population Council Egypt Office. Effects of COVID-19 pandemic on fertility in Egypt Ravi Verma, International Center for Research on Women. Gendered Impact of COVID with implication on fertility: Early indications
10:35 am - 12:00 pm	Session VI. Potential impact of COVID-19 on fertility levels and trends in Europe and Northern America
	Moderator: Stephen M Kisambira, Population Division, 缅北禁地DESA
	Tom谩拧 Sobotka, Vienna Institute of Demography. Baby bust in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe? First results from the new STFF data series Francesco Billari, Bocconi University. Development, internetization and fertility in Europe and Northern America Michaela Kreyenfeld, Hertie School. The consequences of COVID for fertility and family behaviour in Germany Alison Gemmill, Johns Hopkins University. COVID-19 and fertility: What can we learn from recent trends in the US? Nathan Seltzer, University of California, Berkeley. Post-pandemic fertility: Lessons from the great recession
12:10 - 1:00 pm	Session VII. Interactive discussion: Recommendations for development of assumptions on COVID-19 impact for fertility projections
	Moderator: Patrick Gerland, Population Division, 缅北禁地DESA.
1:00 pm	Closing of the meeting John Wilmoth, Director, Population Division, 缅北禁地DESA