9:30 – 12:30 |
I. Opening session
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- Hania Zlotnik, Director, United Nations Population Division. Projecting fertility: A history (presentation)
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II. Low fertility countries in Europe, Northern America, Australia and New Zealand
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- Tomáš Sobotka, Czech Republic, Vienna Institute of Demography. European fertility trends and prospects (presentation)
- Gerda Neyer, Austria, Stockholm University. Effects of family policies on childbearing behaviour in developed countries (presentation)
- Hans-Peter Kohler, Germany, University of Pennsylvania. Why has fertility recently increased in many developed countries? (presentation)
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14:00 – 17:30 |
III. Low fertility countries in Asia
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- Gavin Jones, Australia, National University of Singapore. Recent fertility trends, policy responses and fertility prospects in low fertility countries of East and Southeast Asia (presentation)
- Gu Baochang, China, Renmin University of China. Fertility prospects in China (presentation)
- Ryuichi Kaneko, Japan, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. Fertility prospects in Japan (presentation)
- Sergio DellaPergola, Israel, Hebrew University Jerusalem. Fertility prospects in Israel: Ever below replacement level? (presentation)
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IV. Arab countries –diversity in fertility levels
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- Laila El-Zeini, Egypt, Cairo University. Fertility transition in Egypt and Morocco: Explaining the differences (presentation)
- John Casterline (USA), Ohio State University. Fertility levels and trends in Arab countries: Why so diverse and what are the prospects (presentation)
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Thursday, 3 December 2009 |
9:30 – 12:30 |
V. Latin American fertility levels
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- Suzana Cavenaghi, Brazil, ENCE/IBGE. Diversity of childbearing behaviour within population in the context of below replacement fertility in Brazil (presentation)
- Guiomar Bay, UN/ECLAC. Latin American fertility decline: Differences and commonalities
- Luis Rosero-Bixby, Costa Rica, University of Costa Rica. Is Latin America starting to retreat from early and universal childbearing? (presentation)
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14:00 – 17:30 |
VI. Asian countries with intermediate fertility levels
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- Carl Haub, USA, Population Reference Bureau. Fertility prospects in India (presentation)
- Zeba A. Sathar, Pakistan, Population Council. Fertility prospects in Pakistan (presentation)
- Terry Hull, Australia, Australian National University. Fertility prospects in South-Eastern Asia (presentation)
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VII. Prospects of fertility decline in Sub-Saharan Africa
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- Tom Moultrie, South Africa, University of Cape Town. Stopping, spacing and postponing: The future of the African fertility decline (presentation)
- Jean-Pierre Guengant, France. Proximate determinants of fertility in Africa and their use in fertility projections (presentation)
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Friday, 4 December 2009 |
9:30&²Ô²ú²õ±è;–&²Ô²ú²õ±è;12:30 |
VIII. Projecting fertility
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- United Nations Population Division. The evolution of United Nations Population Division’s approach to projecting fertility
Presentation of new methodology:
- Adrian Raftery, Ireland, University of Washington. : Overview of a Bayesian approach to projections
- Leontine Alkema, Netherlands, National University of Singapore. Methodology for Bayesian projection of fertility (presentation)
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Preliminary assessment of new methodology:
- United Nations Population Division. Implications for total fertility and population projections
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14:00 – 17:30 |
IX. Panel discussion on projecting fertility
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- Peter Johnson, USA, United States Census Bureau
- Joel Cohen, USA, Rockefeller University
- Nico Keilman, Norway, University of Oslo
- Timothy Dyson, United Kingdom, London School of Economics and Political Science
- Peter Way, USA, United States Census Bureau
- John Bongaarts, Netherlands, Population Council
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X. Closing
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