缅北禁地

Overview

The past four decades have witnessed tremendous changes in fertility levels in developing countries. Many countries have recorded dramatic declines in total fertility rates and in many others fertility has started to decline. Despite those trends, there remain 48 countries that have fertility levels above 5 children per woman. In Africa alone, the countries that have not yet embarked on their fertility transition account for over a fifth of the population of the continent. 

There is broad agreement about the conditions that favour the onset of fertility transition. Those include general socio-economic development, decline in mortality, improvement in female education, changing demand for children, diffusion of new ideas and strong government policies and programmes. However, there is no consensus regarding the specific conditions that need to be present for the transition to begin. Among countries that have begun their fertility transition there exist a variety of circumstances that challenge existing theories of fertility transition and defy simple characterization of the conditions that lead to fertility decline. Thus, determining the prospects for fertility decline for the current high fertility countries requires an examination of the specific conditions in those countries. 

The Population Division of the United Nations is organizing a Workshop on the Prospects for Fertility Decline in High Fertility Countries from 9-11 July 2001 at the United Nations Headquarters in New York. Researchers from 14 different countries will meet to investigate the conditions that hinder or facilitate fertility decline, to provide insights into the prospects for decline and to indicate policy measures that may facilitate the onset of fertility decline. Five young researchers from Togo, Burkina Faso, Morocco, Cote D鈥橧voire and the Democratic Republic of the Congo will also attend the Workshop as part of the Out-Reach Programme of the Population Division.
 

Documents

• Objectives

• Organization of work

• List of participants

Organization of work

Background paper

• Demographic Situation in High Fertility Countries

Contributed papers

• Paulina Makinwa-Adebusoye. Sociocultural Factors Affecting Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa (UN/POP/PFD/2001/2) 

• J-P Guengant and J. F. May. Impact of the Proximate Determinants on the Future Course of Fertility in...(UN/POP/PFD/2001/3)

• F. Ni-A Dodoo. Fertility Preferences and Contraceptive Use: A Profitable Nexus for Understanding ...(UN/POP/PFD/2001/4)

• Jacob Adetunji. Mistimed and Unwanted Childbearing in the Course of Fertility Transition (UN/POP/PFD/2001/5) 

• S. W. Wasao. A Comparative Analysis of the Socioeconomic Correlates of Fertility in Cameroon and ... (UN/POP/PFD/2001/6)

• S Fall and P Ngom. Baisse de la F茅condit茅 en Afrique Francophone Tendances R茅centes et Futures (UN/POP/PFD/2001/7)

• Eltigani E. Eltigani. Levels and Trends of Fertility in Oman and Yemen (UN/POP/PFD/2001/8)

• Victor Agadjanian and Ndola Prata. Trends in Angola鈥檚 Fertility (UN/POP.PFD/2001/9)

• Akim J. Mturi and Andrew Hinde. Fertility Levels and Differentials in Tanzania (UN/POP/PFD/2001/10)

• J P.M. Ntozi and F E. Ahimbisibwe. Prospects for Fertility Decline in the Face of HIV/AIDS in Uganda (UN/POP.PFD/2001/11)

• M. Oladosu. Prospects for Fertility Decline in Nigeria: Comparative Analysis of the 1990 and 1999...(UN/POP.PFD/2001/12)

• David Shapiro and B. Oleko Tambashe. Fertility in the Democratic Republic of Congo (UN/POP/PFD/2001/13)

• Zeba A. Sathar. Fertility in Pakistan: Past, Present and Future (UN/POP/PFD/2001/14)

• Christine Ouedraogo. F茅condit茅 en Milieu Rural Africain : Rep猫res pour L麓analyse des Changements (UN/POP/PFD/2001/15)