20 May 2019 |
9 am – 5 pm
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Opening
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GEOSTAT
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Tim Miller, Global Adviser on Population and Development, Population Division, DESA and Thomas Spoorenberg, Population Division, DESA
Session 1. Introduction
- Tim Miller, Global Adviser on Population and Development, Population Division, DESA
- 1.1 Why do we need population projections?
- 1.2 Why are we bad at making them?
- 1.3 The basic accounting identity of demography
- 1.4 The Lexis diagram
- 1.5 The cohort component projection method
- 1.6 Training exercise: Lexis diagrams
Session 2. Establishing the starting population
- Thomas Spoorenberg, Population Division, DESA
- 2.1 Evaluate the quality of the data
- 2.2 Deficient and incomplete data: methods for correction
- 2.3 Transfer the population to midyear
- 2.4 Training exercise: Preparing the starting population
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21 May 2019 |
9 am – 5 pm
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Session 3. Fertility component
- Thomas Spoorenberg, Population Division DESA
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3.1 Analysis of past fertility trends: levels and age patterns
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3.2 Training exercise: Baseline fertility data for Georgia
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3.3 Projection of future fertility trends
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3.4 Training exercise: Fertility assumptions for Georgia
Session 4. Mortality component
- Tim Miller, Global Adviser on Population and Development, Population Division, DESA
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4.1 The life table
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4.2 Assessing the completeness of register data
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4.3 Training exercise: Constructing a life table
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4.4 Projection of future mortality trends
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4.5 Training exercise: Mortality assumptions for Georgia
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22 May 2019 |
9 am – 5 pm
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Session 5. Migration component
- Thomas Spoorenbeg, Population Division, DESA
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5.1 Analysis of past migration trends: levels and age patterns
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5.2 Training exercise: Baseline migration data for Georgia
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5.3 Projection of future migration trends
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5.4 Training exercise: Migration assumptions for Georgia
Session 6. National population projections
- Tim Miller, Global Adviser on Population and Development, Population Division, DESA
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6.1 The components of the cohort component projection method
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6.2 Detailed procedures for making population projections using the DAPPS software
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6.3 Examining graphs and tables in DAPPS
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6.4 Training exercise: A population projection for Georgia
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6.5 How to design integrated scenarios
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6.6 Training exercise: Integrated scenarios for Georgia
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23 May 2019 |
9 am – 5 pm
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Session 7. Subnational population projections
- Tim Miller, Global Adviser on Population and Development, Population Division, DESA and Thomas Spoorenberg, Population Division, DESA
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7.1 Subnational components
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7.2 Interregional migration
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7.3 Insuring consistency with national projections
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7.4 The Feeney method
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7.5 Iterative proportional fitting
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7.6 Detailed procedures for making subnational projections using software
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7.7 Training exercise: Subnational population projections for Georgia
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24 May 2019 |
9 am – 5 pm
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Session 8. Innovations in data visualization methods
- Tim Miller, Global Adviser on Population and Development, Population Division, DESA and Thomas Spoorenberg, Population Division, DESA
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8.1 How to present population results
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8.2 Using indicators: population ageing
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8.3 Quantifying projection uncertainty thru probability fans
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8.4 3-D visualizations: R, 3D printing, and AR
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8.5 Training exercise
Session 9. Conclusions and final discussion
Closing
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