Africa’s overall climate and energy landscape
Africa’s population of about 1.3 billion is expected to double by 2050. By 2030, Africa is projected to be home to 60 per cent of the world’s working-age population. The profound demographic changes are set to drive the need for economic growth, infrastructure development and, in turn, increase energy demand for job creation, mobility and cooling.
The continent has more than two-thirds of the world’s people living without electricity, and the current trajectory of Africa’s fast-growing population suggests that this figure will increase to 90 per cent in 2030. Access to electricity remains especially low for low-income African countries (37 per cent) and those countries experiencing conflict and coming out of conflict (29 per cent). This means African countries have a very long way to go in electrifying homes, supplying sustained and reliable energy for industrial use, as well as providing adequate and affordable clean cooking solutions.
In terms of climate change, Africa is the least contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions and is on a net positive side of the quest towards net zero. African countries represent only 3.3 per cent of global primary energy consumption, 1.1 per cent of electricity generation and 3 per cent of global energy use in industry. Sub-regionally, southern Africa consumes 45 per cent of the continent’s energy and north Africa uses around 40 per cent. Moreover, coal is consumed in only a handful of African countries whose use represents a meager 2.8 per cent of global coal consumption.
Although the African continent is responsible for only 3.8 per cent of the global greenhouse emissions, it is disproportionately vulnerable to the impacts of a changing climate and the most-exposed region to its adverse effects. Africa is already facing a wide range of impacts, including increased , while climate change threatens sustainable development. For example, Madagascar is currently on the brink of .
African countries currently spend between 2 per cent and 9 per cent of their gross domestic product (GDP) in climate adaptation and mitigation measures. in African nations vulnerable to extreme climate patterns is projected to grow from $895 billion in 2018 to about $1.4 trillion in 2023—nearly half of the continent’s GDP.
The ripple effects of the pandemic and the potential long-term impact on energy access
While the direct health impacts of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in Africa may seem lower than the rest of the world, the ripple effects of the pandemic are delivering a heavy blow to Africa’s ability to achieve the sustainable development goals, including energy access.
For example, some of the gains made in providing access to clean cooking fuels were reversed when household incomes were devastated due to the pandemic and people were forced to revert to using biomass for fuel. Already, over half of Africa’s population is forced to resort to biomass, such as firewood and charcoal – an option that is economically inefficient and environmentally devastating.
Moreover, when the pandemic struck, African countries used resources at their disposal to support at-risk populations, keep services running and support struggling industries. Such fiscal and monetary responses to address the direct and indirect impacts of the pandemic necessitated borrowing. In the long-term this has significant implications related to indebtedness and negative consequences for accessing finance for development, including for investments in energy generation, industrialization, and climate adaptation.
Energy as a lynchpin to sustainable recovery
Despite the setbacks caused by COVID-19, the pandemic offers an opportunity to “build back better”. The African solidarity demonstrated in fighting the pandemic, through initiatives such as the African Union launched the African Vaccine Acquisition Trust () can be harnessed to reinvent Africa’s food systems, health care, education, transportation, with new economic models designed around sustainable production and consumption. Energy access will be a pivotal factor for achieving this vision of sustainable recovery.
Achieving such a sustainable path to energy access will take time, especially since African countries are not just looking to transition existing capacities to cleaner energy but rather, to develop whole new energy generation capacities. It will take time to build up suitable institutional and policy foundations before a well-functioning energy sector can be the cornerstone of economic development.
With these unique circumstances, African countries need realistic timeframes as well as adequate and sustained financing to implement policies that will allow them to achieve their energy security goals in a sustainable manner and in less carbon-intensive ways. To achieve a rapid scaleup of energy access, African countries would inevitably have to follow a path of a - with the ability to balance the use of transition fuels such as natural gas with cleaner energy sources, even as they contend with adapting to climactic changes negatively affecting lives and livelihoods.
Africa’s unique needs
As global leaders met and negotiations took place during the Conference of the Parties to the (CoP 26) in Glasgow from 31 October to 12 November, two priorities stood out for the African continent, which has unique needs and circumstances compared to the rest of the world.
First, Africa is the least contributor to global greenhouse emissions and on a net positive side of the global net zero ambition due to a largely under-developed energy sector. At the same time, energy is key to achieving Africa’s sustainable development goals. Considering the intertwined nature of climate change and energy generation, crafting a balanced energy mix will be key for Africa to meet its climate commitment.
Predictable and sufficient financing for the energy infrastructure as well as climate adaptation is essential for the continent to meet its climate commitments. Thus far, climate finance has been highly unpredictable and dependent upon the good will of Africa’s partners. Even when certain windows of finance issues such as the ease of access the funding and absorption capacities stand in the way. Furthermore, while the calls for the private sector’s involvement are getting more traction, the practical considerations for involving the sector beyond corporate social responsibility initiatives is not well laid out.
With the global financing picture further complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic, there is also a need to build trust in climate finance flows, with funding specifically earmarked for climate change-related projects to ensure that investments are fast-tracked.
* Watch the by the OSAA Knowledge Network on “Practical Realities: Africa’s priorities for CoP 26 and beyond.”